Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 6 of 13
Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 6 of 13
The woes of financial operators should not be overlooked, of course. There is a palpable risk that their pathology will lead to credit constriction that will, in turn, trigger an economic contraction. But thus far, the Cassandras on Wall Street, in the press and on the political campaign trails have had less to be glum about than they expectedor perhaps they had hoped for commodity trading strategy.
This is not to say that we are not at risk of encountering turbulence. Personally, I think the cruising speed of the U.S. economy has slowed considerably, and it is likely to remain subpar for the current and following quarter. Without getting into specific numbers, I will tell you that my growth forecast is one of the more bearish commodity trading platform among FOMC members. For someone like me, who has served on corporate boards and run a private company, it is not difficult to imagine managers being cautioned by their directors and consultants to batten down their hatches and run ever tighter ships at a time of gloomy news stories, dire predictions by respectable analysts and alarming rhetoric from public officials. While there is a risk the U.S. economy might sputter, I do not believe that mighty engine will stall. I have tremendous if the women and men who operate the private sector to overcome obstacles placed before them and keep the pistons of the economy pumping. You can lose a lot of money betting against the recuperative power of the American economy.
Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 11 of 13
Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 11 of 13
One would like to think that as the economy slows, inflationary pressures will do likewise. But we cannot always be sure they will, given the globalized commodities trading system nature of the U.S. economy. Demand-pull pressures abroad have an increasingly potent influence on our domestic economy. Traditionally, a central bank would expect slack to develop as the economy under its jurisdiction weakened, leading to less demand for most inputs and an easing of price pressures. We no longer operate in a traditional economy. Domestic inflation developments have become increasingly less sensitive to domestic measures of slack. In an open, globalized economy, capacity utilization and inflation pressures need to be measured, or at a minimum, understood in their global context.
You cannot think in a purely domestic context about the pricing of oil or steel or soybeans or pulp or shoes or clothing or even what I consider to be one of lifes essentials, beer, because innovations in transportation and communications technology have all but eliminated national borders for almost any product for which trade barriers were negotiated away during the 1980s and 90s. More commodity training books vexing for economists and econometric modelers, the information technology revolution and the spread of the Internet have blurred the once-clear distinction between easy-to-trade goods and difficult-to-trade services.
Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 3 of 13
Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 3 of 13
Indeed, as I speak, central bankers here and across both the pond and the channel feel besieged by a seemingly insurmountable foe delivering retribution for our having been complacent, if not smug, during those happier days. Like Henrys troops at Agincourt, it may appear that we face overwhelming odds. Yet I am not overwhelmed.
Why not, you ask? How to trade commodities allows me to invoke another of your English ancestors in reply. Winston Churchill once asked: Why is it that the ship beats the waves, when they are so many and the ship is one? The reason is that the ship has a purpose. Tonight, I wish to give my view of the purpose of the Federal Reserve.
Needless to say but I will say so any way the views commodity market trading I express this evening will be my own and not those of any other member of the Federal Open Market Committee or any official of the Federal Reserve System. This is but one mans soliloquy.
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